Where we go from here

Some July 4th Optimism—Publisher’s Roundup 25

Watching Congress pass Donald Trump’s Big Ugly Bill this week took me back again and again to two moments of my time in the Obama White House. The first was the celebration in the Roosevelt Room on March 21, 2010, when the Affordable Care Act received its final affirmative vote in Congress. Everyone from the president on down who had worked on the bill was watching the vote on TV and erupted in jubilation.

The second was the morning of Nov. 3, 2010, when I walked through the White House gates for the first time after the administration lost the trifecta that had allowed the ACA to move in the first place. I always took a moment to appreciate the rare privilege of going to work in the White House, but that morning was the gloomiest of my over 700 passages into that building.

I’m by no means comparing the monstrosity that is Trump’s big ugly bill to the ACA. We were giving health care to the American people, and Trump and his MAGA minions in Congress are taking that away from up to 17 million Americans as well as stripping millions of them of jobs, food assistance, and much more. All to fund tax breaks for a handful of millionaires and billionaires! Yet my mind returns again and again to the distance from March 21 to Nov. 3, 2010, because that day of political reckoning for the ACA represented such a contrast with the emotions surrounding that bill’s passage.

I believe Trump and his congressional enablers are going to face a similar reckoning – on steroids. Poll after poll shows that the American people hate the big ugly bill and that the furor around it has penetrated public opinion. For example, the Pew Research Center found that, “far more Americans oppose the legislation than favor it. Nearly half (49%) oppose it, while 29% favor it.” Another poll found that the majority of adults (64%) have an unfavorable opinion of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” The negative polls go on and on.

Part of the bill breaking through is the furious fight put up by Democrats in Congress acting like an opposition party. As I write this, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies is still speaking, having just broken the House record of eight hours and 32 minutes on behalf of a unified and unanimous Democratic caucus objecting to the Big Ugly Bill. The fight led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and his unanimous caucus was equally vigorous. Indeed, their objections resulted in the Senate parliamentarian stripping more than a dozen heinous provisions from the bill, including ones that would have let AI run amok by barring state regulation for 10 years and would have handcuffed federal courts’ ability to hold Trump accountable for his many rule of law violations.

I don’t, of course, want to sugarcoat the moment. The passage of this bill is the latest in a series of devastating harms that Trump and his MAGA minions have wrought. He launched his administration by pardoning over 1,200 insurrectionists including those who violently assaulted police – and by targeting the prosecutors and FBI agents who investigated and convicted them. He has trampled the rule of law hundreds of times since. He has embarked on a reign of terror against migrants in our country, including those who are here lawfully. He has assaulted all the pillars of a free society: the press (most recently with his collusive $16 million settlement with Paramount for utterly benign activity by 60 Minutes), universities (this week forcing the University of Virginia and Penn to knuckle under), law firms, unions, and many more.

And yet, in a note of hope as we head into this Fourth of July weekend, there has also been tremendous pushback that exemplifies the American spirit of independence–and that sets up the coming reckoning for Trump and his MAGA minions at the polls. I've written here about the four Ps of democracy pushback: court proceedings, events in and at the polls, public protest and political leadership. Funded in no small part by your paid contributions here at The Contrarian, we were in court the first minute of Trump’s attack on the rule of law, securing court orders protecting law enforcement from his onslaught. Since that first day, we and the coalition we are proud to be a part of have kept on winning, with courts stopping his illegal acts almost 200 times–and counting–thanks to your help.

That has included repeated successes on the immigration front, (with another win protecting asylum rights just this week led by our friends at the ACLU), as well as for those who have stood up and fought back in each of the areas of Trump’s assault: media organizations including the Associated Press, universities led by Harvard, labor unions such as AFGE and AFSCME, law firms including Perkins, Wilmer, Jenner and Susman, and on and on. The pushback has been so overwhelming that even Trump's MAGA majority on the Roberts Court hasn't been able to stop it, touching only a fraction of the cases.

What's more, Trump is at historic lows in opinion polling, has been facing landslide adverse voting in elections so far in 2025, and the American people have been mobilizing in the largest public protests we've seen in generations. As for political leadership, what we've seen in opposition to the big ugly bill in both the House and the Senate– culminating in Jeffries’ record-breaking speech– is a far cry from where the opposition was in those two bodies in January of this year.

Come elections in November 2025 and November 2026, we will look back on the big ugly bill as part of the springboard that gave rise to a new American consensus. That is when millions of Americans will next sit in judgment of Trump and his MAGA enablers in Congress and at the Roberts Court and the death and destruction that they wrought over the past days.

Scholars such as Eric Foner, Garry Wills, and Noah Feldman have written about a second founding of America in, around, or after the Civil War. The Trump administration is like a forest fire burning through American governance, but one that will also allow a new growth. Here at The Contrarian we aspire to be on the forefront of the pushback, of honestly describing just how bad that conflagration is but also of preparing for what comes after: the repudiation of Trumpism and a third refounding of our democracy. This week, like every week, I think we did our fair share of that work, as you will see from my roundup below.

Looking at all that gives me optimism as I head into this holiday of hope. If the Americans who declared independence on July 4, 1776, inspired by the American idea, could overcome the odds against them, I am confident that we can do the same.

The Big Ugly Bill

The worst bill in modern history

Jen Rubin wrote on the Democrats’ responsibility to hold the GOP accountable, in career-ending fashion, for passing a bill that guts Medicaid, slashes food aid, and endangers rural hospitals—all while handing tax breaks to the wealthy. "The task for organizers, activists, and ordinary Democratic voters between now and 2026 is to make sure every voter knows who is responsible for this shambolic legislation and which party fought tooth and nail to stop it."

How they vote tells you everything: Ezra Levin on the destructive results of the Reconciliation Bill

Jen was joined by Ezra Levin to discuss what is—beyond a politically catastrophic choice for Republican—a monumental threat to the wellbeing of millions of Americans. "They know that the more people learn about this, including Republicans, the more they oppose it."

The Contrarian covers the Democracy Movement

This week saw protests at the Capitol against inhumane budget cuts, protests against 'Alligator Alcatraz' in Florida, and more. With the narrow passage of Trump’s budget bill, now is the time to make your voice heard, loud and clear. Call your representative, demand they justify the cruelty, and let them know we will not forget it: (202) 224-3121.

What the GOP really wants

You Thought Medicare Was Safe? Think Again.

Donald Berwick, physician and former Obama Medicare and Medicaid administrator, explained that the president’s promises to protect Medicare—even while devastating Medicaid—are empty. Sequestration threatens more than $530 billion in cuts to the program over nine years, and the results will be catastrophic.

The Paper Trail Matters

Chioma Chukwu, executive director of nonprofit watchdog American Oversight, wrote on what happens when a government erases its memory. “Imagine a CEO ordering staff to shred evidence and wipe chats. Now, imagine senior government officials doing the same with military decisions. That is exactly what continues to happen under the Trump administration.”

You’ve Inherited Millions of Acres. Republicans Are Stealing It From You.

Conservationist Ryan Busse wrote on the fire sale Republicans want to make of 40 percent of our nation’s treasured endowment of public land. "No royalty, wealth, or status is required to access rivers or hiking trails in the United States...These rare and treasured cultural leveling devices don’t require a gold card and don’t discriminate. Now that you understand your incredible inheritance, it's time to sound the alarm."

How metaphors catalyze and crystallize anti-immigrant sentiment and policy

Dr. Julie Sweetland unpacked the ways language shapes policy, for better or (lately) much, much worse—as when GOP politicians have called immigrants “poison” or an “infestation,” manufacturing fear to justify cruelty. To shift the dialogue, she explained, we can open a conversational 'side door' into a topic that Americans typically enter through well-worn partisan arguments.

Don't be fooled: A national abortion ban is still the GOP goal

Jennifer Weiss-Wolf and former White House advisor Jennifer Klein laid out five myths hiding the scale of the threat to women’s health and reproductive rights, as three years after Dobbs, abortion access continues to be quietly dismantled through lawsuits, budget cuts, and misinformation.

RJ Matson, Michael de Adder, and Ruben Bolling gave us cartoons that show exactly what kind of clothes our would-be emperor and his lackeys are wearing: End game; Helping hands; Tom the Dancing Bug

Profiles in Corruption

Marco Rubio has abandoned his fight for freedom

Tom Malinowski wrote how Trump's Secretary of State went from stalwart defender of freedom to spineless defunder of democracy programs. "If you are a dissident in China, Russia, Venezuela, Iran, or Burma, a Trump/Rubio-led America will no longer help you. But it will defend the free speech of racists and fascists. Theirs is a value-based foreign policy but with twisted values."

Bezos's big fat Venetian wedding proves one thing

Culture columnist Meredith Blake took the only possible lesson from Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez-Bezos’ $50M Venetian spectacle of a wedding—robust backlash, clipart invitations, ill-advised digital Vogue cover and all: Money may be able to buy you a bunch of famous guests, but it can't buy you class.

Trump’s anti-health secretary strikes again

Jeff Nesbit wrote on how Kennedy's latest move—announcing in a falsehood-riddled statement that the United States will no longer contribute funding to a global alliance that helps buy essential childhood vaccines—imperils children in America and around the world. "Kennedy is blatantly foisting years of anti-science, conspiratorial nonsense into critical HHS agencies like CDC."

Offsides with Pablo Torre: This NFL Collusion Bombshell is the 'Holy Grail' of the League's Secrets

In this week’s episode of “Offsides,” Pablo Torre discussed with Jen Rubin a document he recently obtained that neither the NFL nor its players’ union want you to see—one that points to a staggering level of collusion within the league. "This is the story of how the ownership class in America operates."

Lessons in Legacy

The Democracy Index

In a year when it’s hard not to feel unmoored from the meaning of the Fourth, the Democracy Index weighed anchor with another weekly check on our constitutional integrity, from the courts to the Justice Department.

The American people are driven by fairness and decency

Norman Ornstein gave us a stirring meditation on exactly what Republicans are endangering through their cuts, raids, and government of billionaires, by billionaires, for billionaires: fairness and decency. “Everyone who has a heart and conscience needs to rail against” these attacks on the bedrock of American democracy.

Stop saying 'this isn't who we are'

Shalise Manza Young wrote from another angle on the lessons of the administration’s cruelty: that it has always been a part of America’s DNA, and to pretend otherwise is to participate in a too-long legacy of turning a blind eye. "Stop saying, 'this isn’t who we are.' What we’re seeing now is what this country has always been: A country that was born in violence and is sustained by violence."

Check out the Declaration’s list of grievances

On the eve of the Fourth, Jen Rubin turned to the Declaration of Independence—not for its famous opening lines, but for its list of grievances. Nearly 250 years later, she wrote, the echoes of Trump are hard to miss. "We all can use this Independence Day to rouse our fellow Americans from their stupor, recall for them the offenses of our modern tyrant, and summon them to embrace the spirit of the Declaration."

The Science of the Declaration

Historian Ted Widmer wrote on an underappreciated aspect of The Declaration of Independence—that it was a scientific argument as much as a political one—and argues for preserving this foundational heritage in the face of unprecedented threats to funding and education across STEM.

Have a great Fourth of July and long weekend friends. Recharge your batteries, take inspiration from the holiday and see you for Coffee with the Contrarians at 915 am et Monday ready to resume the fight! Warmly, Norm

An earlier edition of this piece incorrectly said ‘Penn State’ rather than ‘Penn’. The error has since been rectified.