This morning my inner cynic immediately took over when we heard about a ceasefire in the Iran kerfuffle. I muttered, "Stocks sure must've dropped at Lockheed Martin, RTX and Northrop Grumman!"
This is exactly my wish. Maybe a new regime could locate a copy of The Constitution somewhere, read it, understand it, and set up a government as described in its handwritten script (guess even the SCOTUS can't read script any more).
According to several sources, there is an ongoing coup. According to Tousi, most of the Iranian general staff has been killed and their successors are pledging support to the crown prince in exile and he asked Trump for help. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCjJdkOqhTg
This comes from inside Iran. They had a democracy. 50% of the population, women, object to Sharia. They have several large minority groups that oppose the national government. 8 to 12 million Kurds in Iran, making them the third-largest ethnic group in the country after Persians and Azerbaijanis, are alligned with Kurds in Iraq.
Maybe 200,000 Sunnis.
Prior to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, there were approximately 200,000 Assyrians in Iran, according to the Assyrian Policy Institute. Many Assyrians left the country after the revolution, with the majority settling in the United States, and they support regime change.
There are approximately 300,000 people of Persian descent in Israel. While most of this community speaks Persian (Farsi), it's important to note that some also speak Judeo-Persian languages. The exact number of Farsi speakers within this community isn't specified, but it's a significant portion of the overall population. If there is intelligence and a fifth column they are probably the source.
Back in the 1950's the CIA engineered a "regime change" i.e., a coup) of the democratically elected government of Iran. To put it in simple terms, we sowed these seeds and now we are harvesting the results. The coup (actually there were two of them because the Iranian people backed their elected president who intended to nationalize the oil company for the benefit of the citizens, so the first attempt was not successful) led to us re-installing the Shah, followed some years later by the mullah takeover. Iran has suffered from us heavily over these years.
Whatever the reasons for regime change might come out of the mouths of fools, (imho) it is Netanyahu who strokes Trump‘s ego by saying he’ll win the Nobel peace prize for supporting Israel. That’s the reason we have to be involved.
Let's hope he doesn't decide to try to invade. US troops invading Iran would entail horrendous casualties on both sides. Iran isn't Saddam Hussein's Iraq. He lined up his forces like a parade and waited for the Allied buildup. That won't be the way in Iran. They have thousands of people well versed in IEDs and asymmetrical warfare. It would be like Afghanistan, Syria, etc. all over again.
As recently as a couple of years ago, there were major protests. Executions. Tens of thousands jailed.
It's estimated that at most 20% of the poulation actually support Sharia.
Meanwhile the mullahs are accusing many of being allied with Mossad. "Iran has carried out multiple arrests of people it suspects of spying for Israel since the start of its campaign against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and military infrastructure on June 13." https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-says-man-accused-of-spying-for-israel-executed/
A little bird informed me that Trump is having somebody "ghost write" his next book.
A book that will soon be on sale and will be available in a pre-order when paying with lots and lots of $trump coins or with donating some gold plated stuff to the White House.
The little bird also told me that Bezos is paying a hefty $100M for the book.
Jen: Maybe I’m just a Grinch but when you write “Regime smashing” or “regime annihilation” results in “casualties, expense, and fallout (e.g., attacks on U.S. personnel (i.e. citizens), hostage taking of U.S. personnel (again citizens), consistent terror attacks (as we are seeing in Blue States and cities),” it seems as if something similar is happening at home. The current crop of Republicans, however, do have a plan for what’s next and it certainly isn’t a “better alternative.”
Very astute reflection David. I have been thinking the same thing. Federalism is such a knotty problem IF one party does not rule in all states. Talk about contradictions. Of course that proves the real goal is power, dictatorial power. Such an outcome is not inevitable. But everyone who is not part of the 30%maga club will have to struggle and fight for years most likely to secure democracy and democratic principles if there is to be any decent future for those too young or not yet born to join the struggle now. Time to rewrite the Declaration of Independence.
This is all part of Donald's imperial fantasy, fed and fueled by the dreadful men who comprise his inner circle.
They all have reasons to want Donald looking outward while they focus on matters here at home. There's Russ Vought, obsessed with pushing Project 2025 over the finish line, and Stephen Miller, obsessed with his massive, borderline genocidal project of ethnic cleansing, and JD Vance, sweatily tangled up in his unwholesome dream of succession and imagining the ways in which he will wield his vindictive power once installed in the Oval Office.
So they're all quite happy, each for reasons of his own, to see Donald tangled up in Putinesque visions of global conquest--the annexation of Canada, the invasion and occupation of Greenland, the crushing of Iran and (no doubt he imagines) its transformation into a highly profitable subsidiary of Trump Inc, for wherever petrodollars flow Donald sees glittering billions flowing into his capacious pockets.
One thing is unequivocally clear. Under the Republicans, the rules-based international order is dead.
Nice column that summarized the issues very well. The current theocratic regime is hardly what we'd want there, but even if we (with or without Israeli help) could topple the regime, it's far from guaranteed that whatever replaces it won't be even worse- and historical example says there's a good chance that's exactly what would happen
I believe the regime change to which Trump is referring is in the US: change to a kleptocratic autocracy. Iran is just a “look what my toys can do”move by Trump. He’ll leave the rest of us to pay the bill. Wait for the crypto coin with Alexander the Great on one side and Trump on the other.
The US is capable of taking out the head of regimes we don't like, but we have a lousy track record of installing the near-mythical 'pro-democracy, pro-west' type of regime in its place. We tried that for years with Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan. The problem? Any 'pro-democracy, pro-west' regime would likely be as acceptable to the Iranian populace as Karzai was in Afghanistan. The replacement regime would be looked at with suspicion as a western puppet.
Also, let's be honest, the notion that we need to go into another country and replace its repressive regime that stomps on women's rights, minority rights, and terrorizes its own people is rich coming the current regime in DC.
Rubio defended the attack, because Iran "could" produce nuke materials. On that basis alone, imagine how many countries they could justify taking down. Good analysis, Jane.
Thanks, Phyllis! Remember when Rubio was considered the mature adult in the room? Kind of proves Rick Wilson's saying, ETTD, Everything Trump Touches Dies. RIP, Liddle Marco's common sense and conscience.
We’re already in its Chinese counterpart: May you live in interesting times.
In my 9th decade, I'd sure like to see Republicans acting like Eisenhower (minus the mass deportations), not like Hair Hitler and his goons and ignoramuses.
There is no end of money for war but we all must sacrifice health care, food, housing, and education to keep money flowing to the rich.
Eisenhower warned us. We didn't listen.
Ike also put the ball in play in Vietnam.
This morning my inner cynic immediately took over when we heard about a ceasefire in the Iran kerfuffle. I muttered, "Stocks sure must've dropped at Lockheed Martin, RTX and Northrop Grumman!"
I keep asking, if countries really want nuclear energy, why use uranium? Why not thorium? https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/thoriums-long-term-potential-in-nuclear-energy-new-iaea-analysis#:~:text=Thorium%20is%20a%20by%2Dproduct,as%20great%20as%20for%20uranium.
Ans. to make bombs.
Good question, Daniel. Plutonium can also be used and other elements as well.
Fear-based spending at that. Enuf already…
although, if anyone would like to initiate a 'regime change' here, I'm all for it
This is exactly my wish. Maybe a new regime could locate a copy of The Constitution somewhere, read it, understand it, and set up a government as described in its handwritten script (guess even the SCOTUS can't read script any more).
SC. Out with SC “ justice pubic hair on coke can womanizer.”
According to several sources, there is an ongoing coup. According to Tousi, most of the Iranian general staff has been killed and their successors are pledging support to the crown prince in exile and he asked Trump for help. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCjJdkOqhTg
Tousi TV. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjJec0wv1EUomjrBNt1xCTA
Wonder what they are smoking.
This comes from inside Iran. They had a democracy. 50% of the population, women, object to Sharia. They have several large minority groups that oppose the national government. 8 to 12 million Kurds in Iran, making them the third-largest ethnic group in the country after Persians and Azerbaijanis, are alligned with Kurds in Iraq.
Maybe 200,000 Sunnis.
Prior to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, there were approximately 200,000 Assyrians in Iran, according to the Assyrian Policy Institute. Many Assyrians left the country after the revolution, with the majority settling in the United States, and they support regime change.
There are approximately 300,000 people of Persian descent in Israel. While most of this community speaks Persian (Farsi), it's important to note that some also speak Judeo-Persian languages. The exact number of Farsi speakers within this community isn't specified, but it's a significant portion of the overall population. If there is intelligence and a fifth column they are probably the source.
They had massive protests a few years ago. Executed ome, jailed tens of thousands. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahsa_Amini_protests
Regime change BEGINS at home, Robin.
working on that
No greater feeling than putting a dictator out of commission.
I wholeheartedly support this idea!
Back in the 1950's the CIA engineered a "regime change" i.e., a coup) of the democratically elected government of Iran. To put it in simple terms, we sowed these seeds and now we are harvesting the results. The coup (actually there were two of them because the Iranian people backed their elected president who intended to nationalize the oil company for the benefit of the citizens, so the first attempt was not successful) led to us re-installing the Shah, followed some years later by the mullah takeover. Iran has suffered from us heavily over these years.
Whatever the reasons for regime change might come out of the mouths of fools, (imho) it is Netanyahu who strokes Trump‘s ego by saying he’ll win the Nobel peace prize for supporting Israel. That’s the reason we have to be involved.
Trump never mentioned the Iranian citizens when announcing his bombing.
No boots on the ground in Iran but we have boots on the ground in Los Angeles.
Worse that that. He defunded the Farsi Language Service of Voice of America. Go figure.
Let's hope he doesn't decide to try to invade. US troops invading Iran would entail horrendous casualties on both sides. Iran isn't Saddam Hussein's Iraq. He lined up his forces like a parade and waited for the Allied buildup. That won't be the way in Iran. They have thousands of people well versed in IEDs and asymmetrical warfare. It would be like Afghanistan, Syria, etc. all over again.
As recently as a couple of years ago, there were major protests. Executions. Tens of thousands jailed.
It's estimated that at most 20% of the poulation actually support Sharia.
Meanwhile the mullahs are accusing many of being allied with Mossad. "Iran has carried out multiple arrests of people it suspects of spying for Israel since the start of its campaign against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and military infrastructure on June 13." https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-says-man-accused-of-spying-for-israel-executed/
Once again, Jen has asked the obvious questions that our illustrious pretend politicians in charge, do not. Well done and very thoughtful.
Hear, hear. Thank you Jen for this excellent piece!
A little bird informed me that Trump is having somebody "ghost write" his next book.
A book that will soon be on sale and will be available in a pre-order when paying with lots and lots of $trump coins or with donating some gold plated stuff to the White House.
The little bird also told me that Bezos is paying a hefty $100M for the book.
Here's the working title:
"The Art of the Fail"
Or, “Commander in Thief.”
"Fast Times at Dementia High"
Jen: Maybe I’m just a Grinch but when you write “Regime smashing” or “regime annihilation” results in “casualties, expense, and fallout (e.g., attacks on U.S. personnel (i.e. citizens), hostage taking of U.S. personnel (again citizens), consistent terror attacks (as we are seeing in Blue States and cities),” it seems as if something similar is happening at home. The current crop of Republicans, however, do have a plan for what’s next and it certainly isn’t a “better alternative.”
Very astute reflection David. I have been thinking the same thing. Federalism is such a knotty problem IF one party does not rule in all states. Talk about contradictions. Of course that proves the real goal is power, dictatorial power. Such an outcome is not inevitable. But everyone who is not part of the 30%maga club will have to struggle and fight for years most likely to secure democracy and democratic principles if there is to be any decent future for those too young or not yet born to join the struggle now. Time to rewrite the Declaration of Independence.
This is all part of Donald's imperial fantasy, fed and fueled by the dreadful men who comprise his inner circle.
They all have reasons to want Donald looking outward while they focus on matters here at home. There's Russ Vought, obsessed with pushing Project 2025 over the finish line, and Stephen Miller, obsessed with his massive, borderline genocidal project of ethnic cleansing, and JD Vance, sweatily tangled up in his unwholesome dream of succession and imagining the ways in which he will wield his vindictive power once installed in the Oval Office.
So they're all quite happy, each for reasons of his own, to see Donald tangled up in Putinesque visions of global conquest--the annexation of Canada, the invasion and occupation of Greenland, the crushing of Iran and (no doubt he imagines) its transformation into a highly profitable subsidiary of Trump Inc, for wherever petrodollars flow Donald sees glittering billions flowing into his capacious pockets.
One thing is unequivocally clear. Under the Republicans, the rules-based international order is dead.
I suspect that no small number of Americans arise daily and hope for Regime Change here...
Guilty.
I scan the headlines daily for “He’s Dead!”.
Nice column that summarized the issues very well. The current theocratic regime is hardly what we'd want there, but even if we (with or without Israeli help) could topple the regime, it's far from guaranteed that whatever replaces it won't be even worse- and historical example says there's a good chance that's exactly what would happen
Unfortunately, our current regime models the current one in Iran.
I believe the regime change to which Trump is referring is in the US: change to a kleptocratic autocracy. Iran is just a “look what my toys can do”move by Trump. He’ll leave the rest of us to pay the bill. Wait for the crypto coin with Alexander the Great on one side and Trump on the other.
Spending the morning reviewing the news analysis on Substack and YouTube, I appreciate your consistent, well-reasoned analysis.
The US is capable of taking out the head of regimes we don't like, but we have a lousy track record of installing the near-mythical 'pro-democracy, pro-west' type of regime in its place. We tried that for years with Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan. The problem? Any 'pro-democracy, pro-west' regime would likely be as acceptable to the Iranian populace as Karzai was in Afghanistan. The replacement regime would be looked at with suspicion as a western puppet.
Also, let's be honest, the notion that we need to go into another country and replace its repressive regime that stomps on women's rights, minority rights, and terrorizes its own people is rich coming the current regime in DC.
Rubio defended the attack, because Iran "could" produce nuke materials. On that basis alone, imagine how many countries they could justify taking down. Good analysis, Jane.
Thanks, Phyllis! Remember when Rubio was considered the mature adult in the room? Kind of proves Rick Wilson's saying, ETTD, Everything Trump Touches Dies. RIP, Liddle Marco's common sense and conscience.
Exactly!
Superb analysis. We think we can alter other cultures. Such arrogance. Back fires everytime.
Also. It's about Oil for the US. Has been since the 1950's.
Yes!!! Regime change in the USA!
It's all about $$$ for war industries and our own populace can rot. Got it.
Actually, I'm okay with "regime change" by virtue of the fat it's so desperately needed here.
Be careful what you wish for........................
In fact, there's a Yiddish curse that goes:
May you always get EVERYTHING you wish for!
We’re already in its Chinese counterpart: May you live in interesting times.
In my 9th decade, I'd sure like to see Republicans acting like Eisenhower (minus the mass deportations), not like Hair Hitler and his goons and ignoramuses.