Trump’s Foreign Aid Spending Freeze – a Combination of Chaos and Cruelty

The global consequences of the administration’s 90-day funding pause have already begun

In the barrage of executive edicts and harmful week one actions by the Trump Administration, one of the most damaging has been the approach to “immediately pause new obligations and disbursements” of funding for 90 days for all foreign aid. This order is already harming U.S. national interests and will likely result in thousands losing their jobs. People could die. It is a brutally inefficient way to run a government.

President Trump was always clear about his priorities. He has consistently been an opponent of foreign aid, arguing that the United States is being ripped off. I, and likely many of you, fundamentally disagree with these positions. Foreign aid generally makes up between one to two percent of the U.S. budget, yet it buys us influence around the globe, and also enables the U.S. to meet its moral responsibility (as the wealthiest nation on earth) to give back to others. Trump’s approach is short-sighted, as it’s often much cheaper to offer aid than to allow unstable situations to fester until they become full-blown crises that inevitably draw in the United States. Furthermore, good governance and anticorruption programs level the playing field for American businesses.

It’s reasonable for the Trump Administration to undertake a review and ensure spending is consistent with their priorities. Every new administration goes through these processes, and the Administration’s Executive Order on Foreign Aid and an Office of Management and Budget Memo proposes just that.

What is so damaging is that both the Executive Order on Foreign Aid and the OMB memo explicitly enforce a 90-day pause on all new obligations and disbursements of development assistance funds. This is already throwing the system into chaos and leading to cruel and destructive outcomes.

A quick reminder on how the U.S. government spends money. First, Congress authorizes and appropriates funds through legislation. This tags funding to specific agencies and allocates amounts between programs while leaving the Executive Branch considerable discretion. The agencies then enter legal commitments with recipients and the funds are disbursed. In the case of foreign aid the funds go directly to foreign governments, international organizations, or contractors who are implementing the work.

In light of these procedures, what the administration is doing is likely illegal. Steve Vladek predicts that “the Supreme Court will have to settle the matter within the next few weeks”—and, he concludes, even the Roberts Court will likely consider the broader OMB memo to freeze a series of expenditures including foreign aid unconstitutional.

Still, that may take time and is not a certainty. In the meantime, we’ll see a lot of damage. So what does a 90 day pause mean in practice?

First, all new programs stop. This includes grants that were already awarded and had contracts signed to start, but where the government has not yet disbursed the funds. I’ve already seen on LinkedIn individuals putting up posts describing how they were about to start a new job next week supporting a U.S. government grantee only to be told that job no longer exits.

Much worse, most existing U.S. programs do not have all the funding disbursed at once. Multiyear programs and organizations that count on significant funding from the U.S. government receive regular disbursements of funds – some as frequently as every two weeks. They are now going to have to spend the next 90 days trying to survive without the resources that enable survival.

In other instances, programs and organizations may temporarily shut down and lay people off only to bring them back when funding restarts in 90 days. Meanwhile their most talented workers will seek alternative, more secure employment, while unnecessary shut down costs and then startup costs could make the programs less efficient.

This is not how you run a government. It’s not even how you would expect Donald Trump and his cronies to run their businesses. You don’t just put a full stop on all spending and programs unless you are trying to cause damage.

Programs already affected include PEPFAR, a global H.I.V prevention and treatment program started by George W. Bush that has been one of our most successful foreign assistance programs and has saved 25 million lives. The Administration has not only ordered a stop to PEPFAR funding but has told organizations to stop distributing HIV medications purchased with U.S. assistance, “even if the drugs have already been obtained and are sitting in local clinics,” The New York Times reported. This is plain malice: the money has already been spent. The executive order could also stop work on fighting a deadly Marburg virus in Tanzania, polio vaccinations, and the countering of bird flu.

These programs are not just pure generosity by the United States. They also protect Americans, because diseases do not stop at borders. And they buy the United States goodwill around the world.

The order also has more direct implications on U.S. national security. Take for example the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah that came close to collapsing this past weekend and required last minute mediation from the United States. It is dependent on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) being able to go back into Southern Lebanon and displace Hezbollah. The Biden Administration put $100 million towards investing in the LAF to make sure they could do just that. That money is now on hold, and if the LAF does not reassert control of these areas, Israel will not pull out and fighting could restart.

Not only will the resumption in fighting lead to more death and destruction, but Israel will probably rely on its Iron Dome air defenses to respond to strikes from Hezbollah. They will then come to us for funding to replenish their stocks at a cost much higher than the support for the LAF.

The list of examples can go on for pages, whether it be promoting and defending democracy on Russia’s periphery or programs directly meant to compete and counter Chinese influence. All will be on pause.

Secretary of State Rubio put out a memo outlining how the 90 day policy is to be implemented, which included minor exceptions and a process for exemptions on a case-by-case basis. Given that on Monday the entire senior career staff at USAID was put on paid leave for supposedly violating the order, we should expect neither orderly nor mitigated implementation. Few if any career officials will even ask for an exemption for fear of losing their job.

The bottom line is that unless these actions are quickly stopped in the courts, the next ninety days are going to be incredibly detrimental to U.S. national interests—and much else around the globe.

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Ilan Goldenberg served as Vice President Kamala Harris's Special Advisor on the Middle East and previously held positions at the Pentagon and State Department. He is the author of the Dialogue and Dissonance Substack.