When Autocrats Screw Up

Maybe Trump really blew it this time

Acting president Elon Musk declared that tariff cheerleader Peter Navarro “is truly a moron.” What does that imply about President In Name Only (PINO) Donald Trump, who has swallowed Navarro’s advice hook, line, and sinker? (One wonders if Trump will notice that the man whom he allowed to run the federal government thinks he—or at least his chosen policy course—is idiotic.)

And that was before Trump threw the tariff train into reverse, announcing he was “pausing” tariffs on many countries but imposing a 125 percent tax (tariff) on goods from China. A 10 percent across-the-board tariff nevertheless would remain on other countries. Got that? (He doesn’t, either.) The sheer chaos and confusion he has caused is hard to describe. Unnerved investors, employers, and consumers may well hunker down, avoiding all big decisions, which could—in and of itself—throw us into a recession.

Even before the shocking about-face on Wednesday, Musk was not the only one decrying the White House’s economic malpractice.

The Wall Street Journal reports, “The reality of a global trade war is starting to push corporate bosses to do what they tried for months to avoid: criticize President Trump’s policies.” No longer lurking in the shadows, some business leaders are publicly lambasting Trump’s economic self-immolation.

While a number of Wall Street law firms capitulated to Trump rather than incur his wrath, many of their clients are not holding back. CEOs of some publicly traded companies, according to the Journal, at least want trade groups representing their industries to “more forcefully oppose the tariffs or front collective statements from their big-company members.” In other words, the CEOs are tiptoeing toward collective action.

Trump might be entering dangerous territory. “[I]f the illusion of invulnerability falters, if he over-extends, then suddenly he’s in big trouble,” [emphasis in original], writes Ben Raderstorf of Protect Democracy. “The opposition that was scared off comes back even more energetically. As ever more people show they can cross him politically without being destroyed—that just encourages others to get in on the game. Every act of courage makes the next one more likely.”

As we say at The Contrarian, courage is contagious.

If Republican politicians’ fear of economic devastation (not to mention political annihilation) overcomes their fear of retribution by Trump, Trump may lose control of his heretofore docile congressional minions. Once politicians cross Trump on an issue as near and dear to him as consumer taxes (tariffs), the hesitancy to cross him on other matters may fade. Imagine if this public criticism becomes commonplace—or even spreads to criticism of the countless other outrageous policies Trump has inflicted upon the American people (and the world).

It is therefore no small matter when Trump’s tariff blunder is held up to ridicule not only by Democrats but by rightwing think tanks, financial gurus, billionaires, publications, and politicians. Collectively, a batch of Republicans might dare to reject blatantly unqualified nominees, or stand up to defend aid to Ukraine. They might demand a congressional investigation of Signalgate, conflicts of interest, and crypto grift. When the Great Leader seemed infallible and invincible, resistance seemed futile. But if he now proves to be inept, stupid, and downright foolish, then opposition might not only possible but essential.

We know from other autocracies that flashes of gross incompetence can wake up previously meek opposition. Consider recent events in Bosnia. Last month, the Associated Press reported, “At least 100,000 people descended on Belgrade on Saturday for a mass rally seen as a culmination of months-long protests against Serbia’s populist President Aleksandar Vucic and his government.” This was the continuation “of a nationwide anti-corruption movement that erupted after a concrete canopy collapsed at a train station in Serbia’s north in November, killing 15 people.” They blamed political leaders. “Many in Serbia blamed the crash on rampant government corruption, negligence and disrespect of construction safety regulations, demanding accountability for the victims.” The government blew it; the evidence could not be swept under the rug; and the opposition caught fire.

Like all autocrats, Trump’s narcissism and quest for dominance require that he appear indomitable. Hence, he wins everything (e.g., his own golf tournaments, nonexistent awards); and declares that, for instance, God ordained that he survive an assassination attempt. (Sound familiar? The Contrarian contributor and historian Ruth Ben Ghiat recalls that after a failed assassination attempt, Hitler declared, “I am invulnerable. I am immortal.” She notes, “For believers, Hitler’s survival proved that he enjoyed divine protection.”)

Despite the nonstop performance of bravado (e.g., Putin scores 8 hockey goals! The former North Korean Dictator hit 11 holes-in-one… in a single golf round…the first time he ever played!), autocrats are not very resilient. Living in a world of their own invention, imbibing their own propaganda, and surrounding themselves with yes-men, they are unable to spot early warning signs of economic, diplomatic, or military collapse. “Nobody tells dictators hard truths, lest they get pushed out of a window, or their family gets murdered. Comforting lies therefore become a central feature of dictatorships, which eventually leads to autocrats who miscalculate because they believe the lies that are told to them, out of fear,” Brian Klaas writes. When disaster strikes, autocrats are loathe to admit error, allowing whatever danger to metastasize. Trump’s determination to double down on disaster, or to insist that every misstep he makes was actually a strategic maneuver, is exactly what you would expect from someone who seeks to emulate strongmen.

In sum, Trump is facing a dilemma that other narcissistic aspiring-strongmen often face. Having built up the persona of infallibility, he is left exposed when the calamity is too big to ignore. Yesterday’s decision to cave (though he framed it as being highly intentional and motivated by other people “getting yippy”) just reinforces the notion he is utterly out of his depth. Deep in splendid isolation from reality, he might be shocked (or simply in denial) that the economy is crumbling and with it, his iron grip on the MAGA Republican Party.

Now is the time for Democrats to turn up the heat, highlight the extent of the self-induced economic crisis, and force Republicans to either abandon ship or go down with the Titanic presidency. Our economic survival, not to mention our democracy, might depend on it.