The end of fighting in Gaza and the return of the remaining 20 live Israeli hostages are cause for joy and celebration. But there is also grief—grief for those Israelis whose loved ones will return in body bags (if at all), grief for loved ones of Israeli soldiers killed in battle or who committed suicide after serving in an interminable war with unimaginable horrors, and the grief of thousands of Gazans whose loved ones were killed or maimed and whose lives have been reduced to rubble. The end of fighting also summons memories of those slaughtered on Oct. 7, 2023, and no doubt provokes another wave of grief for all those affected.
What can we learn from all this suffering, death, and destruction—as well as the joy that comes from reunification and even temporary peace?
First, Donald Trump is a consummate bully, and when a bully is called for, there is no equal. In this case, it was obvious that for months, if not a year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was the obstacle to ending the war. We know that because when Trump finally badgered him into ending it following Israel’s assassination strike in Qatar, the war ended. No doubt annoyed that Trump’s Qatari friends (and airplane supplier) were hit, he finally decided to act.
In other words, an end to the war quite likely could have come much sooner had Netanyahu not been an impediment and Trump not been disengaged for so long. Understand that as long as Trump was offering unconditional support to Netanyahu and cheering on violence, the war dragged on. When he stopped, the war could end.
That leads to the second major lesson from this horrific event: Unconditional support for the Israeli government no matter how destructive and objectionable its behavior is counterproductive for both countries. Now that Trump and the MAGA right are willing to use pressure on the Israeli government, neither U.S. political party is likely to return to the posture of unconditional support. If Trump can get tough, why not Congress and every future president? The Israel right-or-wrong position that AIPAC, right-wing Christians, and some American Jews have held is no longer unassailable.
The adjustment in Israeli-U.S. relations is long overdue. We remain allied to Israel, as we do with other allies, because Israel has shared our strategic interests and democratic values. Once the latter is called into question, the relationship rightly changes—as it should with other countries (e.g., Venezuela, Turkey) that backslide on democracy.
Third, a real peace—e.g., complete Israeli withdrawal, a functional Arab government in Gaza, and a massive rebuilding—is exponentially more difficult to attain than the end of hostilities and the return of hostages. For one thing, it requires detailed, laborious negotiations for which Trump has no interest or capacity. One could easily see this dragging on for months.
And that brings us to Israel’s future. The current government might fall when budget negotiations flounder or Netanyahu’s government collapses over other issues (such as the military exemption for the ultra-orthodox). In any event, new elections must be called no later than next October. That might mean Netanyahu, forever playing to his base, has no incentive whatsoever to make progress on the remaining issues. Conversely, the Palestinians might rightly figure that a different Israeli government could be more willing to make an acceptable deal. In short, the chance of gridlock on the rest of the deal is high.
Finally, Israelis have been traumatized (as have Gazans), and their politics might have been substantially altered. A full accounting for the security failure of Oct. 7 and the conduct of the war await. The palpable anger toward the government, not only for Oct. 7 and the war but also the virtual breakdown in services, spawned a more active civil society, which might, in turn, become a political force (in concert with the war veterans and hostage families, who now hold an exalted place in Israel). Add to that a reckoning for the ultra-orthodox who were exempted from fighting. Will the Israelis who have lost so much and sacrificed so much allow them to continue to evade military service and yet control a disproportionate amount of political power? And, lastly, to a greater extent than ever before, the Israelis (if not Netanyahu) are acutely aware of how pariah status might affect their future. All that sets up the opportunity for a different political movement, one more conducive to international acceptance and compromise with the Palestinians.
No one should think we are on the precipice of a two-state solution. It will take years before many Israelis are willing to take the risks that would entail. But, by the same token, the prospect of future war and waning confidence in the reserve forces’ willingness to subject themselves to perpetual danger, trauma, and sacrifice might change the cost-benefit equation on the Palestinian issue.
For Israelis and Americans, Palestinians and Jews, the U.S-Israel relationship, and Israel’s relationship with the diaspora, the war can serve as a major inflection point, shattering the status quo. What follows is now in the hands of all those forces. What we know is nothing and no one will be the same. We can only pray that those in the throes of unspeakable grief experience recovery, healing, and—yes—peace.
A very astute analysis and summary.
I'll go out on a limb and say that in the big picture, in terms of the damage he has done to Jewry the world over, Netanyahu is the worst thing to happen since the end of the Second World War.
I can't shake the nagging feeling given the Trump, Kuschner, Witcoff triumvirate, that Gaza is merely another real estate venture with Bibi having cleared the land for a cut and they don't much care what happens to the occupants so long as they don't interfere with the project.