Trump’s scattered brain creates havoc

The economy is at the mercy of the least informed president in history

As frightful as the state of the economy may be, Donald Trump’s flippant attitude toward the damage he is inflicting might be even more alarming. The White House’s about-faces following his inane declarations have sped up and multiplied.

As University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers told me this week, “President Trump is more effective than the COVID virus at creating chaos.” He continued, “Why did financial markets respond so badly to Liberation Day? It wasn't just because of the tariffs. It was because it showed that this is an utterly incoherent administration with no serious advisers, completely unwilling to face trade-offs or reality.”

That self-inflicted chaos lands the economy in a perilous spot. The Washington Post reports, “The faltering economy is starting to become a drag on the housing market. Real estate agents, developers, homebuyers and economists are all trying to make sense of which way trends are heading.” Trying to predict where the economy is heading is fruitless since the person driving it into the ground lurches from one position to the next, bristling when the markets register concern. “Slower growth — the economy shrank at the beginning of 2025 — means interest and mortgage rates will probably stay high for the foreseeable future,” the Post notes. “Stock market swings and flagging consumer confidence are pushing buyers out of the market.”

Why would Trump add “thousands to construction costs for new homes and remodels?” Why would he add thousands to the cost of cars? He either has no idea what impact his schemes have on the economy, or worse, is so far removed from the concerns of ordinary Americans that he cannot be bothered to find out. (Again, on Sunday, he insisted, “I’m just saying they don’t need to have 30 dolls. They can have three. They don’t need to have 250 pencils. They can have five.”) The man who has gilded the Oval Office with garish gold trimmings and enriches himself with cryptocurrency says, in effect, “Let ‘em eat cake!”

Trump observers know that, for all his bluster, he remains a coward—unable to stand the heat. Whether on China tariffs or firing the Federal Reserve Chairman, you can bet he will blink. He pretends he is in talks with China, but lets on that “I’m going to lower [tariffs against China] because otherwise you could never do business with them.” (Then word comes we are in discussions to begin talks.) Why would China’s leaders make any move to appease Trump? If they just wait, he may well retreat on his own.

Trump recently announced he was “authorizing the Department of Commerce, and the United States Trade Representative, to immediately begin the process of instituting a 100% Tariff on any and all Movies coming into our Country that are produced in Foreign Lands.” Studio heads panicked that their businesses (already in turmoil and looking for ways to reduce costs) could face potentially crippling tariffs in what is now an international entertainment industry. Not to worry; by Monday, the White House had walked it back. “No final decision has been made” suggests no one knew what he was talking about.

Trump makes promises wildly inconsistent with White House “policy” and MAGA congressional plans. If he really means what he says (“we’re not cutting Medicaid, we’re not cutting Medicare, and we’re not cutting Social Security”), Republicans dare not cut Medicaid, for fear he will leave them twisting in the wind. (In fact, they’ve started to back away from some Medicaid cuts, leaving budget talks in disarray.) It is hard to separate the absurd (eliminate the deficit!) from the dumb (Canada becomes a 51^st state!) from the dangerous (start a trade war with allies).

This chaos has already started roiling the jobs market. “T. Rowe Price is slowing hiring. JetBlue is reducing nonessential hiring. Polaris, which makes off-road vehicles, has paused some hiring for now,” the Wall Street Journal reports. Add in university hiring freezes and many others vowing to bring “in fewer employees will help them cut costs and weather a turbulent moment,” and you have the makings of a “recessionary playbook,” Robert Mack, chief financial officer of Polaris, told the Journal.

The damage is both short- and long-term. “A stop-start trade war, sinking consumer confidence and dramatic cuts to federal funding in education, research and the sciences have piled up in the past month,” the Journal observes. You cannot make technological progress when you flip on and off the switch on scientific research. If President Biden boosted productivity by investing in science, building infrastructure, and supporting college students, Trump’s policies very likely will drag down productivity and innovation for years to come.

If only Trump would listen to the most successful investor of his generation, Warren Buffett. “Trade should not be a weapon,” Buffett said at Berkshire Hathaway’s shareholder meeting. “I do think that the more prosperous the rest of the world becomes, it won’t be at our expense, the more prosperous we’ll become, and the safer we’ll feel, and your children will feel someday.” Alas, it is probably useless to convince Trump that we do not live in a zero-sum world.

Trump leaps from one impulsive, uninformed notion to another, unaware or unmoved by the harm he is inflicting. When reporters challenge him with facts, he often becomes irate. (“This is such a dishonest interview already,” he whined when Kristen Welker told him prices are going up on many goods.”)

The least informed, least curious, least logical, least credible, least responsible president in history is not about to change. He cares deeply about acquiring power to inflict harm, knowing nothing about the victims. After all, the recession won’t affect him or his crypto-empire. What does he care if Americans bear the brunt of his unhinged behavior?