Trump’s Agenda is a Loser

Running against lousy policy is a winner

Democrats, often angst-ridden about “getting their message out,” should take some comfort in recent polling. The MAGA agenda is hugely unpopular.

Voters oppose the big ugly reconciliation bill by a roughly 2:1 margin. According to a recent KFF poll, “Nearly two-thirds of the public (64%) hold an unfavorable opinion of the tax and budget bill being discussed by Congress, while one-third (35%) hold a favorable view.” An astounding 71 percent of Independents disapprove. And the more people learn, the less they like it. “[P]ublic support for the legislation drops 14 percentage points to 21% after hearing that the legislation would decrease funding for local hospitals … [while 74%] have an unfavorable view of the legislation after hearing that the bill would increase the number of people without health insurance.”

Likewise, the Washington Post-Ipsos poll shows a similar 2:1 margin against the bill. Spending $45B to build and maintain migrant detention centers and reducing food assistance to low-income households each draw over 60 percent disapproval.

The numbers on Trump’s deportation scheme, when you drill down, are rotten. The Pew poll found:

• 60% of Americans disapprove of the suspension of most asylum applications (39% approve).

• 59% disapprove of ending Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for many immigrants who came to the United States escaping war or other disasters at home (39% approve).

• 54% disapprove of increasing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids on workplaces where people who are in the U.S. illegally may be working (45% approve).

And Americans disapprove of sending migrants to a prison in El Salvador by 61% to 37% margin.

Multiple polls show large majorities disapprove of how the deportations have been conducted. This should surprise no one who recalls how overwhelmingly unpopular child separations were in the first Trump term. It is one thing to favor deportation of “illegals” in general or theoretically; it is quite another to see a violent, unfocused, cruel roundup of people going about their lives and working.

Overall, Trump’s approval is down to the high thirties in several polls. Quinnipiac finds only 38% approve, 54% disapprove; AP-NORC has him below 40 as well. He is in negative territory on virtually every issue, from the economy to trade to immigration.

While Democrats might do a better job of communicating with the public, they have been able to get the word out — or have just let Trump’s lousy policies speak for themselves. A simple message, like “Take away healthcare to give billionaires tax cuts,” and/or dramatic pictures of ICE’s brutal raids (or manhandling politicians) seem to have convinced most Americans they do not like what they see. Topically, less than 16 percent, and less than 1/4 of Republicans, approve of jumping into a war against Iran.

The notion that Trump had a “mandate” to do all this (which I have ridiculed) seems even more preposterous in retrospect. The question then remains:

Why would Republicans go along with this political madness, even if they like these policies?

There are many possible explanations:

· In highly gerrymandered districts or deep Red states, Republican politicians only fear a primary from their right.

· Republican lawmakers have no idea about the content of the measures they vote for (as some claimed on the House reconciliation vote).

· Republicans think voters will forget their votes by the time elections roll around.

· Elected Republicans are convinced the right-wing media echo chamber will shield their voters from the facts.

· Republicans are afraid of Trump and his (arguably) even more unhinged supporters.

· They are banking that many voters (as was the case in 2024) are not paying attention.

Democrats cannot do much about many of these, but they should be concerned about the massively consequential group of those not paying attention. Democrats taking solace in polls should be aware that a great number of voters, particularly on the reconciliation bill, have no opinion. Excuses in 2024 included that they don’t follow the news. Or it’s hard to tell who is telling the truth. While less engaged voters generally do not turn out at midterms, Democrats should not count on low information voters—or only low information Republican voters—staying home.

Whichever way the reconciliation bill comes out (and remember that the only thing MAGA Republicans truly believe in, aside from White Christian nationalism, is giving big tax cuts to their big donors), the task for Democrats will be two-fold between now and the midterms.

First, they must identify, humanize, and lift up the wide array of Americans who will be severely impacted by this monstrous scheme—the working poor, Americans with disabilities (and their caregivers), seniors, cancer patients, children, etc. To paraphrase a statement attributed to Stalin, “One person who loses healthcare coverage is a tragedy; 16M (who will lose coverage if this bill goes through) is a statistic.” They must tell the story of preventable harm and debunk the preposterous claim that Republicans merely cut fraud, waste, and abuse. Their votes hurt Americans.

Second, voters need to know who caused avoidable misery. Democrats must not assume voters will know this is all MAGA’s doing. (Many voters thought Trump gave them pandemic checks, and that Joe Biden wouldn’t cancel student debt.) Every Republican who votes for this should be confronted with the victims of their reverse-Robin-Hood scheme. Every harm needs to be attributed to the Republican on the ballot. “If you lost Medicaid, it’s Rep. Mike Lawler’s fault” or “If your child lost school lunches, Sen. Joni Ernst did it,” e.g.

In sum, cruelty is not popular. And Democrats must focus on MAGA’s victims, tying them to the lawmakers responsible for their ordeal, in order to break MAGA’s grip on power in 2026.