Trump is worse off than he was 100 days ago

The battle for democracy, however, is not yet won.

“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end.
But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

– Winston Churchill, 1942

We therefore cannot tell if the last week or so leading up to the 100-day mark of Donald Trump’s assault on democracy, decency, and truth has definitively shifted momentum toward the pro-democracy movement or just temporarily sidetracked Trump’s march to autocracy. If and only if pro-democracy forces draw the right lessons, cement their alliances, and pursue their MAGA assailants relentlessly will recent events come to be recognized as the end of the beginning of the fight to preserve the American experiment.

Multiple data points from just the last fortnight suggest Trump’s presidency is in disarray:

• Trump has racked up a raft of legal defeats (on sanctuary cities, DEI in all educational institutions, displacement of states’ principal role in election administration, and deportation of immigrants without due process) in court, as federal court judges in multiple cases and jurisdictions enjoined his unconstitutional power grabs. A few judges in separate immigration cases suggested the government might be held in contempt; a court ordered the government to return an illegally deported immigrant; and the U.S. Supreme Court insisted deportees receive due process. The administration’s unconscionable deportation of children who are U.S. citizens should (and will) cement widespread outrage over its actions.

• “Voters believe President Trump is overreaching with his aggressive efforts to expand executive power, and they have deep doubts about some of the signature pieces of his agenda,” the New York Times/Siena College poll found. Multiple surveys showed Trump’s poll numbers are in free fall, plummeting to below 40 percent, while significant aspects of his agenda (e.g., deporting immigrants without due process, eliminating the Education Department, defying court orders, or unleashing his puppeteer Elon Musk to maul the government) proved to be toxic.

• Trump’s miserable economic performance, tariffs in particular (but also consumer confidence and debt accumulation), have drawn bipartisan scorn. Trump’s erratic moves seem very likely to plunge the country into a recession. The Wall Street Journal reports: “The CEOs of American Airlines, PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble and many other major U.S. companies warned that shape-shifting tariff threats make it virtually impossible to plan and are spooking consumers.”

• Trump’s unqualified and/or ethically challenged toadies (e.g., Steve Witkoff, Pete Hegseth, Howard Lutnick) revealed MAGA’s phony meritocracy is no more than a gaggle of ignorant, reckless, and ham-handed incompetents. The white boys club makes a mockery of the regime’s assault on DEI, which most white Christian nationalists claim hinders a merit-based society.

• Key parts of the MAGA agenda have sputtered. Trump’s culture wars have fizzled (even North Dakota’s GOP governor vetoed a book ban). Meanwhile, his supposed strengths (e.g., immigration) have quickly become exposed as weaknesses thanks to incompetence, overreach, and cruelty. Many in the Jewish community have condemned his effort to use antisemitism as an excuse to assault universities’ academic independence. Five Jewish senators wrote,

  “[W]e are extremely troubled and disturbed by your broad and extra-legal attacks against universities and higher education institutions as well as members of their communities, which seem to go far beyond combatting antisemitism, using what is a real crisis as a pretext to attack people and institutions who do not agree with you.”

• Trump’s foreign “policy” is in tatters. The Gaza War truce unraveled, his trade wars against allies (Canada!?) have engendered incredulity, and European allies have joined U.S. Democrats in deploring his sellout of Ukraine (complete with his cringe-worthy parroting of Kremlin lies). Trump’s determination to repeat Neville Chamberlain’s moral and strategic blunder (“Peace in our time!”) has sparked new European solidarity and commitments to build its own defense industry.

• Collective action from universities, charities, law firms, law students, unions, and ordinary Americans has blossomed—putting Republicans on defense (and prompting some to hide from their constituents) while defying Trump’s effort to chill, intimidate, and crush dissent.

• Elon Musk has become a reviled figure, Tesla’s brand turned toxic, and even Musk’s reduced presence in the White House is unlikely to cleanse his obnoxious taint from the Republican Party.

• Democrats have already won a critical Wisconsin Court race, blocked (for now) a North Carolina Supreme Court race from being stolen, and overperformed in special elections.

• Despite a slow start, Democratic congressional leaders are getting their act together, and a cadre of stars (e.g., New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries) have actively stepped up.

The survival of our democracy depends on what happens next. Much will depend on events through the end of this year, namely if: Democrats secure big wins in gubernatorial and legislative races in New Jersey and Virginia; Trump’s approval drops into the mid-30’s; and Democrats can turn Republicans’ inhumane “big, beautiful bill” into a political albatross. If Republicans can reach agreement (if not, their own voters will eat them alive), Democrats must amplify public anger against measures that bust the budget, slash Medicaid, hand billions in tax cuts to the super rich, and accelerate the economic tailspin. Throughout, Democrats must not descend into internecine warfare and purity posturing. Instead, they must sit-in and stand together.

Beyond that, federal circuit courts and the Supreme Court must uphold lower court rulings blocking Trump’s unconstitutional moves and hold him accountable for defying court orders. Media outlets, universities, and law firms that have capitulated should face appropriate backlash. And critically, Americans need to continue their frequent and well-attended peaceful protests.

If the pro-democracy movement continues to build momentum and Trump’s serial blunders multiply, the table will be set for the midterms. From them, the pro-democracy coalition must emerge victorious, thereby significantly thinning the Republicans’ MAGA herd and forcing surviving Republicans to distance themselves from Trump.

In short, Trump lost the first 100 days, but democracy has not won the war. Had the Allies not gone on to prevail on D-Day and win WWII, their victory in North Africa in 1942, which inspired Churchill’s memorable observation, would have been viewed in retrospect as a bump in the road on the way to Nazi victory. Without persistent, ongoing opposition, recent victories on multiple fronts cannot end the MAGA threat.