The (Parlous) State of the Union

Trump will lay out his agenda before a joint session of Congress and the nation. What should we expect?

Given that Donald Trump is a federal employee, did he, too, receive an email asking him to list five bullet points outlining his achievements last week?

It would be quite a list. Among the bullets would be:

· Appeased Vladimir Putin by voting against a U.N. resolution condemning Russia on the third anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine, and by yelling at Putin’s adversary, Volodymyr Zelensky, in the Oval Office;

· Canceled 5,800 contracts, including some that fund the prevention of polio, HIV and malaria around the world;

· Reduced public access to information by restricting access to the White House press pool;

· Weakened our ability to predict and respond to hurricanes and floods by firing 800 scientists and specialists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and hundreds at the Federal Emergency Management Agency;

· And presided over the sharpest drop in consumer confidence in 3 ½ years.

For the new week beginning, there are a lot of bullet points incoming, at “muzzle velocity,” including threatened 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, our neighbors and allies.

And, to explain it all, a big speech on Tuesday night. Technically, it's not a State of the Union address, but effectively it's the same thing, a chance for the president to lay out his agenda before a joint session of Congress and the nation.

It will be a strange moment. Trump does well in the alternate reality he has built for himself, with speeches to MAGA rallies or to big donors at Mar-a-Lago. There, listeners thrill to rants, boasts and other features of “The Weave,” as Trump has described his speaking style.

He does less well in settings that suggest he is operating within a constitutional republic, with checks and balances. Or in chambers that expect factuality and a detailed knowledge of policy. So he will be at some disadvantage as he comes into the Capitol—with memories still vivid of Jan. 6, 2021—to lay out a plan for the next year and ask for legislative help in realizing it.

Of course, he has already spoken in the Capitol this year, delivering his inaugural address on Jan. 20. But a speech to Congress is different, especially in that it permits reactions from the audience. By its very nature, it is a part of the relationship between the executive and the legislature—a kind of conversation in which the members, too, participate. We can expect rapturous cheers from the razor-thin Republican majority and loud sounds of disapproval from the Democrats.

It will be intriguing to watch the body language. For Trump, it is a chance to strike a monarchical pose and cover up the fact that he has actually shown some deference to Congress by coming to its house.

Will he try to charm or command? Will he soften his hardline message with humor or double down with more announcements of tariffs, firings, and immigrant roundups?

Will he offer serious policy proposals when we are beginning to see some pushback at town meetings in red states, alarmed by tax cuts to billionaires and cuts to services?

Or will he act like he’s in a rally and slip in references to Greenland, Panama and the Gulf of America?

[Historian note here Theodore Roosevelt in 1907 specifically mentioned the “Gulf of Mexico” in his address to Congress.]

Will the Democrats be slumped over and dispirited, or will they show some fire?

Where will Elon Musk sit? Will he wear a tie in the Capitol?

Finally, will Trump enter to “YMCA”?

It is always an important speech when the president addresses Congress, but most State of the Union addresses are forgotten quickly after they are given. There are exceptions, of course. Franklin Roosevelt defined his famous “Four Freedoms” in January 1941 (in fact, the speech fell on Jan. 6, a fact Trump is unlikely to celebrate).

Abraham Lincoln wrote out beautiful messages to Congress (he did not deliver them as speeches), including one in 1862 that concluded with this stirring peroration, hinting at the end of slavery:

“Fellow-citizens, we can not escape history. We of this Congress and this Administration will be remembered in spite of ourselves. No personal significance or insignificance can spare one or another of us. The fiery trial through which we pass will light us down in honor or dishonor to the latest generation. We say we are for the Union. The world will not forget that we say this. We know how to save the Union. The world knows we do know how to save it. We, even we here, hold the power and bear the responsibility. In giving freedom to the slave we assure freedom to the free—honorable alike in what we give and what we preserve. We shall nobly save or meanly lose the last best hope of earth. Other means may succeed; this could not fail. The way is plain, peaceful, generous, just—a way which if followed the world will forever applaud and God must forever bless.”

Those words feel very far away at present. The last best hope of earth is not what it used to be.

Lincoln was right to say that we cannot escape history, and that includes that we can easily look at the four speeches Trump delivered to Congress in his first term. They were unremarkable—except that reading them now, they seem relatively restrained. Here is a passage from 2017 that could have been read by a Democrat or a Republican.

“Dying industries will come roaring back to life. Heroic veterans will get the care they so desperately need. Our military will be given the resources its brave warriors so richly deserve. Crumbling infrastructure will be replaced with new roads, bridges, tunnels, airports and railways gleaming across our very, very beautiful land. Our terrible drug epidemic will slow down and, ultimately, stop. And our neglected inner cities will see a rebirth of hope, safety and opportunity. Above all else, we will keep our promises to the American people.”

Not one of those promises came true, of course. But it was refreshing to read a Trump speech lacking the anger and vitriol that fill most presidential speeches in 2025. Perhaps the congressional setting will cool down the overheated rhetoric of the past few weeks and bring us back to a calmer time. But there is plenty of reason to doubt it.

Ted Widmer is the author of “Lincoln on the Verge: Thirteen Days to Washington.”

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