Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Bruce Bender's avatar

Joyce, I am a fan and a subscriber of yours. I am also a long-time fan of diagrams and graphics as part of presentations. I have to confess I don't understand the graphics in this Contrarian feature. Whichever thermometer-thing I click on takes me to the same place, where most of the information bubbles are the same as when I click on a different thermometer-thing. The text inside the bubbles can tend to repeat some of the text in the non-graphic written part. No disrespect - I like the Democracy Index, and I really want to like this graphic thingy better, and am trying my best to make a constructive comment. But I don't get it.

Expand full comment
Ethan S. Burger's avatar

Hi Joyce and friends,

I would love to hear your reaction to:

A Vital Topic for D+1 Day (i.e. June 7)

Democratic Strategy Amid Authoritarian Drift: The Question of Party Switching and Congressional Continuity

Given the growing authoritarianism of the Trump Administration, are leading Democrats actively trying to encourage Republican Congresspersons who care about the rule of law and their constitutional role in preserving the Republic to change their party affiliation, particularly in exchange for Democratic support in future elections such as 2026? This question takes on greater urgency in light of concerns about the effective functioning of government and continued U.S. food, medical, and humanitarian assistance abroad—especially for Republicans representing districts won by Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024.

Lack of Coordinated Democratic Recruitment of Republicans

As of mid-2025, there is no publicly documented, coordinated effort by Democratic Party leadership to recruit Republican members of Congress to switch party affiliation in exchange for becoming Democratic candidates in the 2026 elections. While individual cases of party-switching have occurred, they are rare and typically driven by personal or local political calculations rather than any national strategy.

One notable exception is former Republican Congressman David Jolly, who announced his candidacy for Florida governor in 2026 as a Democrat. Jolly, an outspoken critic of Donald Trump, left the Republican Party in 2018 and later registered as a Democrat, citing deep concerns about the party's authoritarian drift.

Barriers to Party Switching Among Republicans

Several interlocking factors help explain why more Republican lawmakers have not switched parties or publicly broken with Trump, despite grave concerns about democratic erosion:

Fear of Retaliation

Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has stated bluntly: "We're all afraid," acknowledging the risk of political retaliation for opposing Trump.

Representative Eric Swalwell (D-California) noted that GOP colleagues are "terrified" of crossing Trump, citing fears of harassment, threats to personal safety, and attacks on family members.

Political Calculations

Trump remains dominant within the GOP base. Crossing him risks primary challenges, donor withdrawal, loss of committee assignments, and electoral defeat.

Lack of Incentives

Democrats have offered no public guarantees of institutional support, resources, or favorable committee placements to potential defectors. Without tangible benefits, the personal and professional costs of switching remain prohibitive.

Ideological Gaps

Even anti-Trump Republicans may diverge sharply from the Democratic platform on issues such as taxation, environmental policy, labor rights, and regulation.

In short, the risks of defection—both political and personal—appear to outweigh the perceived rewards, even in increasingly unstable times.

Congressional Deaths and Democratic Losses Since 2024

Since the 2024 congressional elections, several sitting Democratic members of the House have passed away, creating temporary vacancies and shifting the balance of power. Below is an updated overview:

Rep. Gerry Connolly (D–VA-11)

Date of Death: May 21, 2025 (Esophageal cancer)

Background: Senior member and top Democrat on House Oversight.

Successor: Seat currently vacant; special election scheduled for Sept. 9, 2025.

Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D–AZ-7)

Date of Death: March 13, 2025 (Complications from cancer treatment)

Background: Progressive stalwart from southern Arizona.

Successor: Seat currently vacant; special election set for Sept. 23, 2025.

Rep. Sylvester Turner (D–TX-18)

Date of Death: March 5, 2025 (Natural causes)

Background: Newly elected after serving as Houston’s mayor.

Successor: Seat vacant; special election scheduled for Nov. 4, 2025.

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D–TX-18)

Date of Death: July 19, 2024 (Pancreatic cancer)

Successor: Erica Lee Carter (D), elected Nov. 2024, served remainder of term.

Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D–NJ-10)

Date of Death: April 24, 2024 (Heart attack)

Successor: LaMonica McIver (D), elected Sept. 2024, sworn in Sept. 23, 2024.

Implications

These vacancies have temporarily diminished Democratic numbers in the House, exacerbating the already narrow partisan divide and complicating the party's ability to counteract authoritarian moves by the executive branch. Timely special elections, succession planning, and strategic outreach to principled Republicans remain vital to safeguarding democratic governance.

Expand full comment
13 more comments...

No posts