Even if protests don’t hit 3.5%, the resistance can topple Trump
An all-hands-on-deck moment
You might have heard of the so-called 3.5% rule. Developed by Erica Chenoweth and colleagues at Harvard, it postulates that “no government has withstood a challenge of 3.5% of their population mobilized against it during a peak event.” However, this is a rule of thumb, not an inviolate law of politics. Chenoweth acknowledges that Brunei and Bahrain, where more than 3.5% turned out but the governments were not overthrown, are exceptions to the rule.
Moreover, and critical for our current purposes, “most mass nonviolent movements that have succeeded have done so even without achieving 3.5% popular participation.” Certainly, turning out 3.5%—or 11.9 million Americans—would be a tremendous achievement in the effort to overcome MAGA authoritarian rule, but over 60% of movements that turned out 1% to 3.5% succeeded.
By all accounts, about 5 million people turned out on the first No Kings Day. That certainly tips the odds in favor of democracy. Pro-democracy organizations should therefore consider which additional factors might contribute to success even if demonstrations never reach the stratospheric 11.9 million mark.
In the 2021 book, “Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know,” Chenoweth identifies four factors that successful movements share: mass participation that draws from “all walks of life”; shifts in “the loyalties of the regime’s supporters”; tactics other than demonstrations; and discipline/resilience in “the face of repression.”
As for the diversity of the opposition, marches and rallies have drawn from old and young, white and nonwhite, and rural and small towns (as well as big cities). Making inroads into red America is certainly significant. Moreover, democracy forces potentially can expand to an even wider array of Americans since the harm Donald Trump is inflicting is hitting so many different segments of society. Farmers hit by tariffs, parents of disabled children deprived of Medicaid, and workers laid off from green energy jobs all can find common cause.
Now, more can be done to draw in Hispanics (who disapprove of Trump by 20 points) and young people (a group in which his popularity has plummeted). Whatever their reasons for voting for Trump in 2024 or staying home, the specter of violent deportations, rising prices, and loss of health care have left many feeling betrayed.
Trump’s iron grip on his party remains. Indeed, the GOP (a party based on ideology with a concrete agenda) has been replaced by a cult of personality that acts as a defensive shield for their Dear Leader, whatever his policy reversals and conservative heresies.
Nevertheless, some small cracks have appeared. Republicans didn’t ride to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s rescue during a disastrous hearing on his vaccine nuttery; and Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) sharply criticized Trump’s assault on the First Amendment. Even in GOP strongholds like Missouri, Trump’s redistricting scheme is drawing opposition. If the 2025 New Jersey and Virginia elections go heavily against the MAGA GOP, more defections might appear.
With respect to tactics other than mass demonstrations, a whole slew of resistance techniques has cropped up. A grassroots boycott of Disney in response to the suspension of Jimmy Kimmel broke through on a cultural level, costing Disney billions of dollars and forcing it to retreat. The downturn in Tesla sales and uptick in returns; the refusal of D.C. residents sitting on grand juries to indict suspects during the federal occupation; and the scores of whistleblowers, fired career government truth-tellers, and litigants of all types have strengthened the resistance. (We would like to think that the rise and overwhelming success of so many independent media outlets also reflect an appetite for resistance.)
Finally, the discipline of nonviolent mass protests (the sole death at protest rallies was caused by a third party), the multiplicity of events, and community opposition to immigration raids (even neighbors are threatened or accosted) demonstrate the sort of self-restraint and reliance needed for success.
In short, Trump inarguably has pushed us toward a police state. However, the already-vibrant pro-democracy mass protests and other relevant factors suggest that the chances of ousting MAGA rule at the ballot box are high. (Democrats remain well ahead in 2026 generic congressional polling.)
Taking a step back, we have also witnessed how anti-MAGA forces dedicated to rational governance have carved out “pockets” of democracy and sanity even as Trump rampages on the national stage, creating chaos and suffering wherever he can.
Regional and topic-specific coalitions protect vast swaths of Americans. The Northeast vaccine coalition and West Coast Health Alliance, for example, have stepped in to provide essential preventive health care services and information to millions as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention becomes a haven for quackery. Likewise, Americans in a number of states can appreciate the green energy progress made under the auspices of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and other climate-related multi-state alliances. And Americans in more than 20 states with Democratic attorneys general have benefited from 50 lawsuits brought by the Democratic Attorneys General Association on everything from birthright citizenship to funding for education and police to the dismantling of government agencies.
Hundreds of cities have already passed non-cooperation laws (incorrectly called sanctuary city laws) to stop their personnel from enabling violent Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids based on racial profiling. (Though they cannot interfere with federal law enforcement, local jurisdictions can carve out space where feds do not get assistance in trampling on individual rights and cruelly ripping apart families and communities.)
Granted, this sort of Balkanization of America is not ideal. In a functional democracy, the federal government would act legally and rationally so all Americans would enjoy a baseline of protection and a functional government. Sadly, we do not live in that America now. Therefore, to build up the resistance—no matter what percentage of Americans turn out to protest—Democratic officeholders working separately and in tandem can create pockets of functional, democratic, and humane governance. These democracy havens help highlight the contrast between functional and dysfunctional governments, and perhaps might even tempt other jurisdictions to adopt sane measures (thereby helping to sow division among the MAGA ruling party).
The 3.5% rule is aspirational, but it neither guarantees nor is a requirement for success. The lesson from the first eight months of a corrupt, lawless, erratic, and dangerous federal regime is that the resistance must turn out in the largest numbers it can, demonstrate resilience in as many ways as it can, and show vibrancy in all the places it can. Collectively, Americans and state and local leaders must sustain democracy wherever they can until the nation as a whole dumps the incompetent, vicious, and autocratic MAGA regime.
Keep up the good work. Discipline. Truth to power. Attack the edges. Will someone please take on the Heritage Foundation. As Such.
The need now is for every American who cares about our democracy to contribute in one way or another in supporting Democratic candidates on both the local and federal level. Whether it's phonebanking, texting, postcarding, knocking on doors or a whole range of other activities, we need a whole lot more people willing to get involved. Protests are just one indicator, and the numbers right now, despite growing larger don't bode well.
Had we responded this way to Pearl Harbor we would have surely never have overthrown the fascists. Time for this generation of Americans (all ages) to step up.