Canada and the United States: How did we get here?

Donald Trump's bombastic statements on our northern neighbor helped cement a win for Liberals.

By David Bernell and Thomas Graham

Canadians went to the polls recently to elect a new parliament and prime minister. The Liberal Party, which had been led by Justin Trudeau, held power since 2015. After 10 years in office, Trudeau and the Liberals had run their course and had been losing popularity rapidly. They were polling 25 points behind the opposition Conservative Party, which was expected to easily win the next election. On March 14, Trudeau officially resigned, not only as party leader but also as prime minister. The Liberals chose Mark Carney as his successor (in Canada’s parliamentary system, the new leader of the majority party becomes prime minister right away).

Carney is not a typical politician. He had never been elected to office, and he wasn’t even in politics when Trudeau announced in January that he would soon resign. (Carney had been thinking about a role in politics for a few years, and was rumored to have been considered by Trudeau as a possible finance minister as recently as last year, but he only ever served in informal advisory roles for Trudeau’s government.) Carney’s career has been spent mostly in the world of central banking and finance. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Oxford University, and, after stints at Goldman Sachs and the Canadian Finance Ministry, he served as the governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013. He then served as governor of the Bank of England from 2013 from 2020. (Both of these positions are the equivalent of the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve.) After, he went back to the corporate world and served as the United Nations Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance. By the time Trudeau was facing his political downfall, Carney was ready to jump into Canadian politics.

Ten days after Carney became prime minister in March, he called a snap election. This was an election he was expected to lose, but Carney seemed to sense that Canadian politics had changed quickly since Trudeau decided to step down, providing an opportunity to him and the Liberal Party. When Canadians went to the polls on April 28, they kept the Liberals in power and retained Carney as prime minister.

In the end, it seemed that neither Carney’s resume, voter fatigue with the Liberal Party, nor Trudeau’s record was the decisive factor in the election. Rather, the vote revolved in great part around the man who has the ability to become the center of attention in almost every conversation about politics these days: Donald Trump.

Canada’s Referendum on Trump

When Trump reentered the White House in January, he was convinced that one of the biggest problems the United States had to deal with right away was Canada. Two issues have dominated the conversation. The most immediate matter, and Trump’s signature issue, was tariffs. Trump had talked a great deal while campaigning about imposing tariffs on U.S. trading partners, and on his first day in office Trump said he would soon impose tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico. He levied 25 percent tariffs on imports from these two countries on Feb. 1. Two days later, facing political backlash and a stock market drop, Trump paused them for 30 days. A similar thing happened on March 4, with the 25 percent tariffs reimposed and then partially rescinded in less than two days for autos, auto parts and other products covered by the free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico that Trump approved in his first term. Trump has also imposed a 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum, which impacts Canada as well. As of today there are a variety of Trump’s tariffs, pauses, exemptions, and threats of more tariffs in the future affecting countries all over the world, with China on the receiving end of a tariff set at 145 percent. Several countries, including Canada, have imposed retaliatory tariffs on the United States. (See here and here for our earlier articles on Trump’s tariffs).

Tariffs, however, have been only part of what has caused U.S.-Canadian relations to deteriorate rapidly. The contemptuous and disrespectful words that Trump continually voices about Canada have set a tone of hostility and prompted even more discord. The most outlandish statements involve making Canada the 51^st state. Trump had talked for a few months, even before entering office, about acquiring new territory for the United States by taking Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal Zone. He said in January that “Canada would be much better off being the 51^st state” and that it is “not viable as a country.” In March he again argued that Canada would be better off as part of the United States, saying that "the United States can't subsidize a country for $200 billion a year. We don't need their cars. We don't need their energy. We don't need their lumber. We don't need anything that they give."

Trump repeatedly taunted Trudeau, referring to him as “governor.” Though it was suggested that the president was only joking about Trudeau and adding a new state to the union, his comments came to be seen as a way to try and diminish Trudeau and Canada’s sovereign status. The Canadians did not consider these taunts to be a joke, and Trump later said that he was serious—not trolling.

The Canadian response to Trump’s comments was to note how ludicrous and inflammatory they were. Trudeau posted on social media after one such comment that “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States.” Carney reiterated these sentiments, saying soon after he was installed as prime minister that “Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form.” But he went even further, pointing out that Canada could no longer count on the United States. Trump’s boasts about making Canada a U.S. state, he argued, “are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us.” What this means for Canada, he said on the night of his election victory, is a new relationship with the United States: “We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons. We have to look out for ourselves.”

In a period of only a few weeks, Trump made opposition to the United States the major issue in the Canadian election. Ultimately, by appealing to Canadian nationalism and being the most convincing anti-Trump candidate, Carney was able to make an astonishing comeback and achieve an electoral victory that no one would have predicted only a few months earlier.

Friends, Not Enemies

The relationship between the United States and Canada historically has been close and amicable. The countries have had their differences over the years on trade and commerce, fishing rights, and even clearly defining the border. However, for more than two centuries, the relationship has generally been so secure and so close that the two countries can brag that the U.S.-Canadian border, which extends for over 5,500 miles, is the longest undefended border in the world. This circumstance, in which neither country has seen a need to secure their border with military bases, fortifications, or fences, is a reflection of the fact that these two countries not only have avoided military conflict with one another, but that they also have exhibited similar interests, goals, and worldviews: advancing liberal democracy, open trade, and mutual defense as part of the NATO alliance.

Perhaps a better state of affairs can be reestablished, at least in part. After a few months of constant American provocations, Trump seemed to have lost his appetite for the politics of imperialism and impudence when Carney paid a visit to the White House on May 6. There was a bit of an exchange about Trump’s previous comments. Carney made clear to Trump that Canada is, “[N]ot for sale. Won’t be for sale, ever.” Trump cautioned Carney to “never say never.” Still, the meeting was far more amicable than expected (and feared). Trump made a special point of saying to reporters that “this is a very friendly conversation.” He even said at one point, “I love Canada.” And in what seemed like a reprieve for all involved, Trump affirmed that, “regardless of anything, we’re going to be friends with Canada.”

After Carney’s visit to the White House, Canadians can hold out some hope that Trump has given up on his enthusiasm for making Canada the 51^st American state (whether trolling or not), and will refrain from further comments on the topic. With regard to tariffs, however, they are unlikely to be that fortunate, as the issue shows no signs of going away, particularly since some of Trump’s tariff pauses will soon expire. But, at least for now, the relationship seems to be one that Trump has decided to address with somewhat less hostility and disrespect and a bit more acceptance that Canada will not be a new territorial acquisition (though Denmark and Greenland might be increasingly worried that Trump’s attention will now turn in their direction).

Canadians might have respite from the erratic behavior and chaos of the Trump administration, but there is little respite from the adverse impacts. Trump has again managed to alienate a close American friend and partner while demonstrating his exceptional capabilities for incurring self-inflicted wounds that will further harm the United States of America.

Time to prepare for the next eruption.

David Bernell is an associate professor in the School of Public Policy at Oregon State University. He is the author of “Constructing US Foreign Policy: The Curious Case of Cuba” and “The Energy Security Dilemma: US Policy and Practice.” Heserved in the Clinton administration with the U.S. Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Department of the Interior.

Ambassador Thomas Graham Jr. (retired) was acting director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency under President Bill Clinton and served as general counsel of ACDA during the presidencies of Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush. In his career of 32 years in the U.S. government, he served in a senior capacity in every major international arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament negotiation in which the United States took part from 1970 to 1999. He is the author of several books on nuclear arms control, U.S. foreign policy, and American politics.

You can find their work on Substack at Defending Democracy.

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