As goes Germany, so goes the Western world?

Since 2010, elections all over Europe have brought far-right parties to power, including in Hungary, Poland, and Italy.

By David Bernell and Thomas Graham

Germany held elections on Feb. 23 and the Christian Democrats won the most seats, while the Social Democrats fell to third place. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which won in almost every district outside of Berlin that was once part of East Germany, came in second. No party received a majority, so the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats are expected to form a governing coalition. Though it might be unusual for the party that came in second to be left out of the government, every other political party has refused to govern with AfD.

AfD espouses racist, xenophobic, anti-immigrant, anti-Islam, far-right-wing positions while downplaying the horror and crimes of Nazi rule and saying that Germany should stop being concerned with its Nazi past. The party began in 2013 largely as a critic of the European Union and Germany’s policies toward Europe, but it has become increasingly right-wing over the years.

The party’s views and actions have led Germany’s domestic intelligence agency to determine that AfD is a “suspected extremist” organization while finding that the party’s affiliates in Saxony and Thuringia are extremist (not merely suspected), meaning that they are considered a threat to Germany’s constitutional order. Germany’s Basic Law says that a political party taking an actively belligerent, aggressive stance toward the free democratic order can be declared unconstitutional and subsequently banned. AfD’s designation as “suspected extremist” could lead to its ban from electoral politics.

The Growing Rightward Trend

The election in Germany is part of a growing wave of support for right-wing politics and parties that espouse anti-immigrant, nativist, and often anti-Muslim and anti-LGBT rhetoric and policies. Since 2010, elections all over Europe have brought such parties to power in Hungary, Poland, and Italy (though the Law and Justice party in Poland was voted out of power in 2023), or seen them gain a growing number of votes, as in Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, and particularly France and Germany.

European governments that are described as right-wing or populist, or that pursue policies to strictly limit immigration, are not necessarily anti-liberal or anti-democratic. Georgia Meloni’s government in Italy prompted concerns early on among centrist parties and governments throughout the EU and NATO. Though her government has faced criticism for its policies on immigration and LGBT rights, and faces strong opposition internally, it hasn’t sought to undermine electoral democracy by trying to eliminate an independent judiciary or a free press. Nor has Italy’s government been uncooperative with the EU, weakened the country’s commitment to the NATO alliance, or ended support of Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.

In contrast to Meloni’s governing party, Poland’s Law and Justice party, which was in power from 2015 to 2023, was more vigorous in its efforts to remake the institutional arrangements of Polish politics, particularly the judiciary. It adopted conservative policies on abortion, and it was especially aggressive in its anti-LGBT positions and rhetoric, with the president saying that promotion of LGBT rights was an “’ideology’ more destructive than communism”. Its most significant anti-democratic effort involved capturing the judiciary, packing courts with the party’s supporters, refusing to abide by judicial rulings, and passing laws that restricted judicial independence, including a “muzzle law” giving the government the power to fire judges whose public comments address forbidden topics. On NATO and solidarity with the West, however, Poland did not deviate from opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It has been at the forefront of NATO efforts to supply Ukraine with aid and impose sanctions on Russia. This is not surprising considering the country’s history with Russia.

Victor Orban and his Fidesz party in Hungary, which promote anti-immigrant, nationalist, pro-Christian politics, have been the most successful and far-reaching in capturing the government and eliminating competing sources of power. Orban’s government is seen as the most authoritarian in the EU, but he hasn’t entirely eliminated democratic institutions or elections, which has been seen as relevant to his skill in amassing greater power. Orban has been prime minister since 2010 and has established control of the electoral system to ensure his and his party’s continued rule. He eliminated the independence of the judiciary and placed his allies in charge of major media outlets. In addition, there ever diminishing autonomy in public education, universities, and civil society. When it comes to the Western alliance, Hungary has been an outlier. It is a member of NATO but maintains ideological ties and a relationship with Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, even after the invasion of Ukraine. Hungary has been skeptical of supporting Ukraine, blocking an EU aid package to the country in 2024, and it slowed the admission of Sweden and Finland into NATO before relenting.

France’s far-right National Rally party, which was led until 2022 by Marine Le Pen (and before that by her father), is another example. It has been part of the country’s politics since it formed as the National Front in 1972. Its leadership, membership, and rhetoric have led its opponents to describe the party as an heir to the Vichy regime, which collaborated with the Nazis. However, its efforts to remake its image as more moderate has allowed it greater electoral success, especially with rising anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe over the past decade. Le Pen reached the runoff stage in the presidential elections twice, winning 34 percent of the vote in 2017 and 41 percent in 2022, though she lost her seat in the National Assembly in the 2024 snap elections, when the National Rally performed worse than predicted, prompting speculation that the far-right might have already peaked in France.

Resilience of the Global Order?

None of the recent changes in European electoral politics has come close to prompting a country to leave the EU or NATO. The internal shifts in the politics of several European countries have thus far not threatened the Western alliance and the global order these countries have sought to uphold and be a part of since 1945 (or since the end of the Cold War).

The United States’ dominance in global politics has led to continuity and stability among democratic governments in North America, Europe and the Asia Pacific region. The global order – with institutional arrangements involving international security, trade, development, health, and other matters – has looked the way it does because the United States, the strongest power in the world since 1945, has wanted it to. Though the United States has at times violated the rules, norms, and laws demanded by the very institutions it supports and helped to create, it has also made much of the world safe without it having to fear the United States as Ukraine has had to fear Russia.

The United States has been, in effect, the biggest and strongest bodyguard of both liberal democracies and globalization, but not always consistently. If the international system is going to change dramatically, if it is going to operate like it did in the age of imperialism with a handful of great powers using their military and economic might to dominate others and carve up spheres of influence at the expense of other countries, if “the jungle is growing back,” then that process is going to accelerate if the United States gets out of the way of those wanting to return to the law of the jungle, or if it joins them, as it appears to be doing with Trump in the White House. Each passing day signals more of an American drift toward Putin and Russia, especially after Donald Trump and J.D. Vance’s appalling treatment of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office last week.

As parties of the right gain voters and come to power in the West, they have several possible paths to follow—including that of Meloni, Orban, and Trump, or far better (but less likely), Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. If Germany’s elections are a harbinger, it is still unclear what future they portend.

David Bernell is an associate professor in the School of Public Policy at Oregon State University. He is the author of “Constructing US Foreign Policy: The Curious Case of Cuba” and “The Energy Security Dilemma: US Policy and Practice.” He also served in the Clinton administration with the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, and the U.S. Department of the Interior.

Ambassador Thomas Graham Jr. is former acting director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency under President Clinton, and served as General Counsel of ACDA during the presidencies of Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He is the author of several books on nuclear arms control, U.S. foreign policy, and American politics.

You can find their work on Substack at Defending Democracy.

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